Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Time for Rev. 1 to SYR PLAN SALAMANDER Dated 15-SEP-2015

A few basics to start with:
- We are years past any easy solution to Syria, if there ever was one.
- The territorial integrity of what on you map is called Syria is not worth the bones on one American.
- The Islamic State as a land holding & governing entity must be destroyed.
- Soldiers of the Islamic State are better killed in place than having them scatter back to their home countries to re-create terror there. 
- In Syria, Russia is not our enemy, and we should not make her one.
- In Syria, Turkey is not our friend, and we should not pretend she is.

As the remnants of the Islamic State are rolled up and out of Iraq and the last holdouts in Mosul are dealt with, attention is turning to the ongoing investment of their capital in Syria, Raqqa.

When it comes to the Islamic State, there is no political solution. Its complete destruction is the only thing in our national interest we should be acting on in Syria.

Let's look back at what I proposed, offhand, 21-months ago;
Let the Iranians and Russians kill Sunni Arab Islamists in the west of Syria while we kill them in the east. How about this: we'll kill them east of the Euphrates and south of road from Nassib in the southwest, through Damascus to Deir ez-Zur on the Euphrates. The Russians, Syrians, and Iranian proxies can kill them in the rest. Once they are done in the north and west, we can just do CAS for the Kurds on the front lines of their frontier as we all push IS forces in to the Iraqi desert.

There, I've deconflicted the airspace for everyone. End game? TBD.
Well, SECDEF Mattis recently gave us the end game.
Defense Secretary James Mattis said Sunday the U.S. has switched to "annihilation tactics" against the Islamic State and is focused on completely surrounding the militants, instead of forcing them to move from place to place.

"Our strategy right now is to accelerate the campaign against ISIS. It is a threat to all civilized nations. And the bottom line is we are going to move in an accelerated and reinforced manner, throw them on their back foot," Mattis said in a televised interview on CBS News' "Face the Nation."

He said the goal was to take out the militants before they could flee to neighboring countries.

"Our intention is that the foreign fighters do not survive the fight to return home to North Africa, to Europe, to America, to Asia, to Africa. We're not going to allow them to do so. We're going to stop them there and take apart the caliphate," Mattis said.
Very well.

We can work with that. 

Now for modifications, as needed in red-bold-italic, but first let's look at a map via Shawn Snow.


That line is about right.

Only a few modifications, here is the D&G for Rev. 1 to PLAN SALAMANDER, bulletized this time for ease of reading.

1. Let the Iranians and Russians kill Sunni Arab Islamists in the west of Syria while we kill them in the east. (no change)

2. We'll kill them east of the Euphrates to include those portions west of the Euphrates in the Raqqa Governorateand south of road from Nassib in the southwest, through Damascus to Deir ez-Zur on the Euphrates.

3. The Russians, Syrians, and Iranian proxies can kill them in the rest. (no change)

4. We will continue to support Kurdish and allied forces inside the area defined in #2 using airpower and advisory liaison forces as needed. Once they are done in the north and west, we can just do CAS for the Kurds on the front lines of their frontier as we all push IS forces in to the Iraqi desert.

There is no reason, I hope, to concern oneself with a vision of tens of thousands or more Americans trying to occupy Syria. The President's inclination is not to do so, and our leadership in the military from the SECDEF on down knows the last 16-yrs well ... and both know the American people have zero support for such.

Our light footprint on the ground with support from the air is about right for this phase. We should let the locals take, hold, and then bicker over the dirt, as long as they keep taking ground from ISIS.

We need to be content with good enough, and avoid the neocon trap of wanting to make people what they are not in a part of the world where there is no place for the enlightenment to take root.

To wind things up - none of this last part is new. I often say that if you want to understand Syria, then watch Game of Thrones

In honor of the show I leave this with you; it is known. This works for both Arab and Kurd in Syria; always remember the great T.E. Lawrence's Art.15;
Do not try to do too much with your own hands. Better the Arabs do it tolerably than that you do it perfectly. It is their war, and you are to help them, not to win it for them. Actually, also, under the very odd conditions of Arabia, your practical work will not be as good as, perhaps, you think it is.

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